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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-12-08T01:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-12-08T01:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43340/-1
CME Note: First visible in STEREO A COR2 starting at 2025-12-08T01:38Z already well into the FOV of COR2A following a data gap. The source is most likely associated with an M2.4 flare from AR 14299 that peaked at 2025-12-08T00:12Z and the accompanying eruption beginning around 2025-12-08T00:00Z that is best visible in GOES SUVI 304.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-12-10T03:23Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-12-10T13:47Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43343/1
Model Inputs:
2025-12-08T01:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=11.0, Lat.=11.0, Speed=767.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2025-12-08T04:41Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-12-10T13:47Z (+- 7 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.8
(kp)90=5
(kp)180=7

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-12-10T03:56Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-12-10T07:36Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251208_044100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 36.98 hour(s)
Difference: -10.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Elizabeth Juelfs (LASSOS) on 2025-12-08T14:24Z

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